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Tehran is the new Shanghai.
All of Asia is awash in a sea of modernity. The march to modernity launched by Japan during the 1860s as part of the Meiji Restoration has finally crossed China, Southeast Asia, and India to reach West Asia. The fastest-growing economies in the world are found in the region from Tehran to Tokyo. Trade flows are massive. Borders are open. A much-heralded automobile race from Tehran to Tokyo proceeds via Kabul and Karachi, north across Karakoram highway to Urumqi, finally reaching Beijing and Pyongyang and crossing to Tokyo. As competitors speed across this vast region, they view a landscape ruled by peace and prosperity.
The Arab world too is awash in modernity. The King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, founded in Saudi Arabia in 2009, has the largest R&D budget in the world. Young Arabs are the world’s most optimistic youth, excited about their futures. Many visit the great exhibitions in Baghdad and Damascus to learn how the magic of the great caliphates is being restored.
During the late 20th century, many Western experts predicted contentious geopolitical rivalries between the rising Asian powers, especially between China and Japan or China and India. Instead, the great Asian cultural renaissance now reminds Asian societies that they were all part of one culture before Western colonization divided the region. Nalanda, India’s ancient center of learning, which was founded more than 1,500 years ago, has once again become an educational center: the Harvard of the East. Scholars from Kabul and Samarkhand, Jakarta and Hanoi, Seoul, Beijing, and New Delhi once again flood to Nalanda.
In contrast to the geopolitical calm in Asia, Europe is now a tired, old continent that cowers before the Islamic renaissance. Each time the Arab League meets, Europe fears that new demands could be imposed on it to open its societies to Muslim migrants. In the face of an aging population, Europe has already “imported” 100 million young Middle Eastern Muslims; they are the region’s most dynamic and economically productive population. Still, despite several high-level Christian–Islamic dialogues, the millennia-old division between the two civilizations and their populations continues.
Torn between its Pacific and Atlantic destinies, Russia finally decides to join the European Union and is welcomed in by a worried Europe. Decision making no longer rests in London, Paris, and Berlin. Instead, the Moscow–Berlin axis dominates. The British, like the Portuguese, can barely remember that they once ruled a global empire.
The only consolation the British have is that English has become the common language of the European Union, the African Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and the Central Asian Caucus. With the English language comes a common set of values concerning how nations and societies should behave toward one another. The principles of the UN Charter and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights have become truly universalized. The world becomes a more “civilized” place.
In 2035, the US Congress decided to adopt two official languages: Spanish and English. This facilitates the nomination of the great grandson of Fidel Castro as secretary of state in 2040. He has two major challenges before him: rising demands from Latin America for the United States to join the Latin American Free Trade Association, and an equally pressing demand to join the greater Asian sphere of peace and prosperity. The nation’s still-growing Hispanic-American population demands closer ties with Latin America, while economic logic requires the United States to plug into Asia and avoid further global decline. In frustration, Fidel Castro IV cancels all trips to Europe, calling them a total waste of time. Only the assistant secretary of state for Europe visits European capitals.
In Africa, Nigeria and Sudan have broken into several states, while Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Ghana have become success stories. A recent wave of investment from China and India has fueled the economic expansion of several sub-Saharan states. Most modern African leaders were educated in Asian universities, and they look to the East as they make their plans for the future. The president of South Africa proposes a new Indian Ocean zone of prosperity; as a first step, South Africa and Indonesia set up a free-trade area that revives historical maritime links.
Global leaders are now primarily concerned with truly global challenges. There are no more doubts about the dangers of global warming. The Maldives has disappeared beneath the sea and New Orleans has abandoned its dikes. New diseases rush across the planet. In response to the need for enlightened global leadership, the leaders of China and India have convened a conference to plan a new global architecture, declaring that the UN structure, dating to 1945, has become totally outdated. They commit themselves to creating a new global organization by 2045.
In a new version of the UN Security Council (UNSC), the world agrees that each region should have one permanent seat (with limited and controlled veto powers) and that only China, India, and the United States will have unlimited veto powers. The regions vested with veto powers in the UNSC are the African Union, ASEAN+4, the European Union, the Arab League, the Latin American Union, and the Central Asian Caucus (including Turkey and Iran). The council now has 9 permanent members (instead of 15); this new council declares its determination to put global issues ahead of regional and national interests. The UN General Assembly becomes a true global parliament, with each country represented by three votes: the government, civil society, and the private sector. Majority decisions must be adopted by majorities in all three sectors. The UN also creates a new Council of Civilizations to promote understanding across civilizations.
Western universities now complement the study of the great Greek and Roman thinkers with those from China, India, and the Islamic world. The Asian universities do the same. The mental framework of the world’s global elite is no longer dominated by Western thinkers. Instead, when they meet, the world’s leaders also speak of the caliphates and the Mughal rulers, the Tang dynasty, and the greatness of Genghis Khan.
These global developments lead to the eventual disappearance of interstate wars. Minor domestic insurgencies persist in the weaker states, but these do not threaten global peace and stability. The whole world is mesmerized by the prospect of a giant asteroid crashing to Earth in 2050, drawing humanity away from local or even national focuses. All this leads to a greater sense of common humanity, with all civilizations and societies declaring that they should focus on their future survival, not past discords. National anthems are done away with in favor of one common ode to humanity. The survival of the human race and planet Earth become the number one preoccupation of all humanity, and all past divisions now seem strange and irrelevant.
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Seriously, this falls under the genre of ‘fantasy’ or better yet ‘delusion’. The Ambassador does have a great imagination though and he should use it. He may yet be as famous as he likes to imagine he is if he gave up his day job and wrote a novel instead. Who knows they might even make it into a Bollywood movie!
Posted 18 June 2009, 22:07 by Bharat
well, I am terribly disappointed with respected Mahbubani. This is an overly optimistic point of view and some predictions here are highly inconceiveable. I agree more with Kishore when he talks about “change in power is often accompanied by volatile geopolitical developments” (in his other writings, not here). I think we will have to go through that period of adjustment before India and China can truly become global superpowers and US and EU accede their dominance. Besides China has its internal issues to resolve and India still needs to deal with terrorism across the border before true peace can return to the region.
Posted 13 June 2009, 16:08 by beegee
in my opinion Mr.Mahbubani’s view is very optmistic from one side and too pessimistic on the other side i totally agree with cathryn when she said “2000 plus years of cultural and religious differences (customs rituals, education, values) are not going to evaporate in the next fifty years”.and this for the simple reason that western states more or less are based on an “open structure of society” and this kind of structure is necessary to reach respect of human rights,individual freedom and consequently a sustainable market economy.furthermore asian regions generally speaking, in particular arab countries are showing a completely opposite trend, theocracy is still strong in many of those, indiviadual dictator ships are never ending and very peculiar is the situation of russia : in the middle between a modern democracy and post-totaliatarian autocracy.in addition there is the middle east issue….a big problem that Mr.Mahbubani has forget to solve…..so that i think that will need more than half a century in western asia to make globalization show its power from all the point of view, globalization is wider than mc donald, coke, and pornography!on the other side is not a mistery that history is no more “eurocentric”, but this probably since the IWW.in the next 3o years the big battle for the world equilibrium will be probably played by china and india and they will surely win for those factors “(huge internal demand and local markets, cheap labour costs, ever increasing foreign reserves, China’s geopolitical influence over Africa)“and also if they both will achieve an important international role as well as social and individual rights.
sorry for my bad english
Posted 14 May 2009, 13:26 by giampistone
I think Mr.Mahbubani’s view of political affairs in 40 years time is realistic and in all probable means, is what we will witness. The Western Era is coming to a close. Sure enough, western culture has had an enormous influence on the east all these years. But with plunging economic growths, aged population and reduced demands, the western world will no longer be able to uphold the prestige of being superpowers for too long. Asia has inevitably got an edge over the west on its economic growth and stability. The large population base in China & India, huge internal demand and local markets, cheap labour costs, ever increasing foreign reserves, China’s geopolitical influence over Africa…All these factors are definitely pointing out to a shift in paradigm of power from the colonial powers. China’s sole ability to depreciate the US$ worth should it decide to dump all its reserves in the market, India’s increasing corporate acquisition of European companies and a lot more to quote may give an uneasy comfort to the west initially.
Inspite, there are issues unsaid in this article on the Asian chapter including governance, corruption, poverty etc. that will seriously hinder the pace of this process.
Posted 29 April 2009, 14:58 by Vignesh
With all due respect, I have to disagree with Ambassador Mahbubani’s rosy view. 2000 plus years of cultural and religious differences (customs rituals, education, values) are not going to evaporate in the next fifty years. Quite the contrary, the legacy of western (US, UK etc.)engineered political borders in the twentieth century will continue to spark conflict in Asia, which has deep tribal and patriarchal roots. Afghanistan is a failed state. Two generations of citizens have never had the benefit of a civil society. Moreover, the free flow of information allows for “non-state” actors to play a major destabilizing role. As far as Saudi Arabia, I was there in January. I couldn’t drive, go out by myself, and had to wear an Abaya. The country has 20% unemployment, mainly the young. The educational system is one of the worst in the world. And then of course there’s the Arab/Israeli conflict.
Posted 11 March 2009, 18:11 by Cathryn Cranston
“All of Asia is awash in a sea of modernity. … The Arab world too is awash in modernity.”
The Arab world too? Too? Last I heard, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arabian peninsula are all part of Asia.
Or is this some new political correctness I’ve not caught up with?
Posted 2 March 2009, 14:18 by Asian Arab