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Europe in 2040 remains Europe—slowly integrating, never quite comfortable with its internally deepening integration, struggling to manage the tensions inherent in integrating more and more immigrants from the Arab Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa into its societies. Yet the Old World still has an important role to play: it proves to be the most effective global force for spreading democratic norms and civil society throughout the world—slowly, like an expanding blob.
Using the magnetic power of the 500 million–strong European market—with one of the world’s lowest fertility rates, it would have shrunk much more if not for massive immigration—the European Union slowly expands to absorb Turkey and other nations. It does so by giving out money and markets, as well as transfer payments and, in some cases, security partnerships, if these alien societies repaint themselves in accordance with the values and principles of the acquis communautaire, a compilation of some 80,000 regulations to which all members of the European Union subscribe. To gain access to capital and consumers, the newcomer nations repaint themselves to look more and more like Europe. The model of a private market and a well-developed system of social rights and norms, with a heavy-handed government role in regulating the system, becomes a leading model in the world. Democracy spreads better slowly, blobbishly, and by choice rather than through force and intimidation. That lesson is clear by 2040.
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20 Dec 2009 · 05:08:55 AM GMT
Well, the logic seems palpable, but not the timing — 2040. Looking at the pace of constructions and destructions, both internal and external, all around the world, I think that your forecast might hold true in 2140. I strongly feel that the n...—Kausar Fahim
In response to Dystopia 2040: A peace worse than war
11 Sep 2009 · 03:32:57 PM GMT
About the mention to South America, how long since your last visit to Brasil, Chile or Peru? Or since your last conversation with executives of companies with direct investments in those countries?—Vicente Almeida
In response to A newer world order
14 Jul 2009 · 08:49:58 AM GMT
About the comments regarding South America I would say that is really necessary understand Brazil´s perspective separately from other countries. Brazil is very well positioned to be the greatest food provider and its industries has following the wa...—Marcelo Andrade
In response to A newer world order
18 Jun 2009 · 10:07:07 PM GMT
Seriously, this falls under the genre of ‘fantasy’ or better yet ‘delusion’. The Ambassador does have a great imagination though and he should use it. He may yet be as famous as he likes to imagine he is if he gave up his da...—Bharat
In response to The Asia renaissance
18 Jun 2009 · 11:35:25 AM GMT
The futurist Peter Schwartz from GBN would disagree – last week at a talk he said that China will not change its system, because even though it is an authoritarian regime, it has been delivering the economic goods. Just like Singapore. He a...—A Lall
In response to Balancing power in Asia
13 Jun 2009 · 04:08:33 PM GMT
well, I am terribly disappointed with respected Mahbubani. This is an overly optimistic point of view and some predictions here are highly inconceiveable. I agree more with Kishore when he talks about “change in power is often accompanied by vo...—beegee
Good article. However Karol’s comment displays a certain lack of understanding about Europe.
Europe is the continent most battered by war over the centuries. The very reason the US Military came along was the culmination of those wars in the form of World War 2; clearly the power hungry states and endless bickering between nations led to a point in which the old world was not capable of keeping the peace itself.
Europe needed the USA, the USSR and Britain to end something they could not end themselves. So far, from a different perspective, I am in agreement with Karol.
However, the scar that was left by the Third Reich was so deep, Europe lost its thirst for conflict entirely. The nations knew, however counter intuitive , they had no choice but to form an entity like the EU in time.
It’s diversity means forming this entity is a painstakingly slow process with hurtles the size of the Mont Blanc. But despite the enormous difficulties, it is expanding. To a degree, this is because of the military back up from the US and Britain (most notably the Balkan conflict is an example of this).
But the slow, soft push towards well organized democracies is a deep, strong and solid approach. Europe’s immense diversity is both its strength and its allure. After losing its foothold so dramatically in WW2, Europe is regaining confidence.
The Old World has a strong ally in the US and Britain but history has seen Europe veer towards the East before. The attraction of its cultures, its organized democracies and its century old trade importance will see Europes influence expand beyond its borders.
Slowly, softly and solidly.
Posted 4 March 2009, 04:57 by Rogier van Kralingen
Inquiring about Europe’s raison d’etre is a bit like that old gag about Brazil: it is the country of the future… and always will be.
The rise of socialist democracy around the world will not come from Europe, but from a duplication of what has already been achieved in Europe by Anglo-American efforts: the elimination of rogue states, and the use of loans, grants, cultural exchange and commerce to expand the community of free nations.
The benefits of a free and stable Europe will remain largely within Europe. The US will continue to be the de facto provider of national defense, energy security, and global stability for EU countries and for EU exports.
Over the next four decades, it is estimated that the current EU population will drop 20% while the US population will grow by almost 50%. One in three Continental Europeans will be aged 65 or older. Up to 20% will be Muslim, many of them no more socially integrated than today.
The US and the UK will continue to pursue rogue nations, occasionally by use of force — the very reason that the US military came to be stationed in Europe to begin with.
In terms of civics and political economy, Continental Europe has more in common with today’s developing nations than with the world’s oldest democratic republic.
Europe’s raison d’etre was decided long ago when Europe’s most ambitious and most concerned decided to create in other lands what they were barred from creating at home. The pooling of brains, capital, ethnic diversity and personal liberties will remain a hallmark of the anglophone countries.
Posted 2 March 2009, 16:30 by Karol