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In the year 2040, there was a peace previously unknown in the world. Each and every nation was content; there were no wars. This peace was not the product of globalization or democratization or new and creative international institutions. In a curious way, one could say this peace had evolved indirectly from communications: from texting, from reality television, from 24/7 cable news, from on-the-one-hand-and-on-the-other-hand prestige newspapers, from the inevitable reactions to mounting terrorism, and, of course, from the finely cultivated language and logic of would-be and elected public servants.
Year after year, more and more people came to spell “you are” as “ur,” and “to” as “2,” and “piece” as “pc.” And soon, few could spell at all and therefore few could actually read. Books with all those old words became relics and were consigned to “book museums,” open to those few approved scholars permitted and able to peruse them.
This trend in communications and literacy took root first in the United States, but quickly circled the globe, all of which had become addicted to US culture. Of course, there could be no old-fashioned democracies in this world. To be truly democratic, a country needs citizens who can read and make informed judgments. But many years had passed since even the most interested citizens could track down real facts. Newspapers, magazines, and TV had abandoned the search for facts as unentertaining and too difficult. Anyway, who really knew what the facts were? Facts became opinions, and of course one opinion was just as right as another. It was all very difficult to sort out.
So people stopped trying, and accepted that the business of government had evolved into something much too complicated for citizens. Therefore, it became unnecessary to have different political parties or to bother with things like voting. These outdated, unentertaining procedures only made governing more difficult. Ruling had to be left to the rulers.
The rulers came to rule because, well, they knew that they knew best. And, miraculously, these new rulers were able to assert that their opinions were not really opinions, but truths. And the truth really wasn’t that complicated.
There were right and wrong positions, they argued, just as there were good and bad Americans. It was hard to see the light initially because a few starry-eyed types (moderates and liberals and even a few conservatives) got in the way, talking about complexities and making everyone’s heads spin. They kept saying that such thinking was un-American, but eventually they lost. It was terrorism that killed them off, rhetorically speaking.
The moderates who governed in Washington after the presidency of George W. Bush could not prevent a series of devastating terrorist attacks. Dirty bombs devastated New York, Chicago, Austin, London, and Jakarta; and water supplies in New England, Canada, and much of South America were polluted with deadly germs. Terrorists had run wild with the moderates in power; people decided that moderates lacked strength and decisiveness and were no longer fit to govern.
Something had to change. And some Americans said they knew what to do. They had a plan. Their plan was more law enforcement, more intelligence, and fewer foolish and unnecessary judicial proceedings; it meant out-toughing the terrorists and beating them at their own game. And in time, the new rulers did kill and silence most of the terrorists. People breathed easier.
This new breed of rulers swept the world for another reason. Trade was becoming freer and freer, and trillions of dollars moved around the world every week just at the touch of computer keys. No one understood what was happening. No one’s job was safe. No one’s money was safe. People needed economic protection too. Those who came to power around the world were strikingly similar; they all stressed protection and security—from the terrorists, from the political moderates who were confusing everybody, and from economic uncertainty. All this protection stalled economic growth, but most people thought the price was worth paying. There would be less consumption, but also less instability.
Above all, the new rulers brought peace. There were no more reasons for war. Each state didn’t have a lot, but it had enough. The new rulers were not interested in land or resources or justice (which was a matter of opinion anyway). They were quite content simply making their own people feel secure. Some people, in the safety of a conversation with a dear friend on the street or in the countryside, fretted that they were bored and worried that peace might not last. Would the new rulers, themselves bored with stability and tranquility, seek new challenges, bringing back war and unrest? That, alas, is another tale, circa 2100.
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Well, the logic seems palpable, but not the timing — 2040. Looking at the pace of constructions and destructions, both internal and external, all around the world, I think that your forecast might hold true in 2140.
I strongly feel that the next 30 years or so would be filled with a lot of chaos all over the world, as the incumbents fight for retaining their hard-earned, bullying hegemony, and as the new entrants (emerging powers) juggle to raise their status quo, along with power-broking centering at either curbing terrorism or supporting terrorism or using terrorrim as a scapegoat to satisfy their vested interests.
Moreover, apart from terrorism, climate change topics/issues/conferences/discussions will be an eyewashing showcase of who is who in the world, and of the world — such forums would again be used as a platform for sheer power broking.
Inevitably, there will be cycles of global recessions, perhaps every five or six years, as the world keeps getting more and more globalized, delaying the pace and growth of power broking activities. Thus, next 30 odd years or so would be chaotic, especially as China is far, far away from getting democratized — which will be the biggest trigger of stability worldwide.
Posted 20 December 2009, 05:08 by Kausar Fahim
Sad story, but true!
Obviously education, and cultural institutions like public broadcasters have a role to play to mitigate this trend. Will 2040 will signal (again) the fall of the Roman empire ? Probably, unless this cultural and political illiteracy trends are reversed.
Posted 1 May 2009, 10:37 by Jacques Bouliane