Power, it is universally acknowledged, is shifting to Asia. What that really means, however, is that the continent’s biggest countries, China and India, are at last modernizing and achieving sustained economic development. All this will make the old-established powers of the West no less capable, influential, or important—but they will be a lot less dominant.
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The middle of the 21st century will resemble nothing so much as the Middle Ages of the 5th to 15th centuries. This was a long and uncertain period and thus an ideal metaphor to characterize our times.
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Yogi Berra, the great sage of baseball, is reported to have said, “Never make predictions—particularly about the future.” He had a point.
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Europe in 2040 remains Europe—slowly integrating, never quite comfortable with its internally deepening integration, struggling to manage the tensions inherent in integrating more and more immigrants into its societies. Yet the Old World proves to be the most effective global force for spreading democratic norms and civil society throughout the world.
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The year is 2040. China and the United States dominate the world landscape, forming an uneasy and not entirely stable partnership, bound together by ties of mutual benefit.
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Tehran is the new Shanghai. All of Asia is awash in a sea of modernity. The march to modernity launched by Japan during the 1860s as part of the Meiji Restoration has finally crossed China, Southeast Asia, and India to reach West Asia.
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Soft-power advocates are forcefully making the case that restoring America’s image abroad is essential to rejuvenating Washington’s global leadership. They also maintain the country’s hard-power advantages are less relevant. These are assumptions worth questioning.
In the year 2040, there was a peace previously unknown in the world. Each and every nation was content; there were no wars. This peace was not the product of globalization or democratization or new and creative international institutions.
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07 Apr 2011 · 05:33:17 AM GMT
such an interesting article. when I come to think of such a possibility, it seems quite real. everything goes back in circles, all the precesses in our life and in nature. what goes around, comes around. so going back to middle ages shouldn’t b...—Bytes Land
In response to The coming Middle Ages
20 Dec 2009 · 05:08:55 AM GMT
Well, the logic seems palpable, but not the timing — 2040. Looking at the pace of constructions and destructions, both internal and external, all around the world, I think that your forecast might hold true in 2140. I strongly feel that the n...—Kausar Fahim
In response to Dystopia 2040: A peace worse than war
11 Sep 2009 · 02:32:57 PM GMT
About the mention to South America, how long since your last visit to Brasil, Chile or Peru? Or since your last conversation with executives of companies with direct investments in those countries?—Vicente Almeida
In response to A newer world order
14 Jul 2009 · 07:49:58 AM GMT
About the comments regarding South America I would say that is really necessary understand Brazil´s perspective separately from other countries. Brazil is very well positioned to be the greatest food provider and its industries has following the wa...—Marcelo Andrade
In response to A newer world order
18 Jun 2009 · 09:07:07 PM GMT
Seriously, this falls under the genre of ‘fantasy’ or better yet ‘delusion’. The Ambassador does have a great imagination though and he should use it. He may yet be as famous as he likes to imagine he is if he gave up his da...—Bharat
In response to The Asia renaissance
18 Jun 2009 · 10:35:25 AM GMT
The futurist Peter Schwartz from GBN would disagree – last week at a talk he said that China will not change its system, because even though it is an authoritarian regime, it has been delivering the economic goods. Just like Singapore. He a...—A Lall