Horace Wood Brock is president of Strategic Economic Decisions, which he founded in 1985 with the sponsorship of institutions including Fidelity Investments, GE Capital, and the IBM Pension Fund. His advisory service focuses on forecasting and analyzing market risks, specializing in the application of the economics of uncertainty model developed by economist and Nobel Laureate Kenneth Arrow.
Paradoxically, one can have greater confidence in the long-run prospects for a currency than in its short-run prospects. This is because the relationship between long-run fundamentals and long-run value is stronger than in the corresponding short-run case.
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The fundamental conceit of efficient-market theory—that markets can perfectly assess and thus price, slice, and dice risk—has collapsed like Edgar Allen Poe’s House of Usher.
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